In an interview with Taiwanese CommonWealth Magazine’s tech column, Pua reaffirms and increases the expectations of market analysts who claim that a “supercycle” is imminent for the memory world. “NAND will face severe shortages next year. I think supply will be tight for the next ten years,” says Pua.
“In the past, every time flash makers invested more, prices collapsed, and they never recouped their investments. So companies slowed spending starting around 2019–2020. Then in 2023, Micron and SK Hynix redirected huge CapEx into HBM because the margins were so attractive, leaving even less investment for flash.” […]
I am not familiar with the industry, but I doubt it. It shouldn’t take ten years to build out manufacturing capacity, so given an efficient market and a predictable shortfall, production should expand by then.
I would hardly call a segment with 2-3 players an “efficient market”.
That being said, I agree with you that 10 years is a long time (especially for tech) as far as market dynamics are concerned.