Nama [he/him]

They have shown to be rather hit or miss with what they are doing. Their plans have a chance of either working or failing spectacularly.

That really is the only good ceasefire deal. One where isntreal stopps existing.

Germany and the EU have no interceptors or other relevant materials to offer isntreal in any needed amounts. Germany doesn’t have enough munitions to replace what their ships carry once.

Iran is also removed from the global system through sanctions. The only nations profiting from rebuilding will be China and Russia mainly. It’s not the entire system, like it was with the other countries. This is an attempt at eliminating a threat militarily, because their attempt at doing so economically already failed.

The point of imperialism is getting access to cheap labor, resources and markets to exploit. The war in Iran does not directly facilitate these aims, it only protects what is already archived. Iran, as a power aligned against the US, was a threat, not an opportunity.

There will be no profitable infrastructure projects from this in the US’s future, except maybe in isntreal. No massive PMC security contracts or resource deals. There is little to “win” here if they don’t manage a regime change, which it looks like they won’t.

This is the US fighting a war they need to fight to keep the conditions you mentioned, not something that will advance their imperial ambitions. This is a war that will cost the US, not benefit it.

America is in no rush. They can slowly escalate and boil the frog. They can slowly increase their involvement bit by bit until Iran finally hits them back hard enough for them to give up their ruse. They will never declare war though, they will just slightly increase the pressure forever.

And each day they do so, more missiles drop on Tel aviv. The US isn’t on a timer, but the Zionazis might be.

Except there was no element of surprise left this time. The sites the US struck were evacuated already.

But as long as the US tries to keep up this “game”, they are not fully committed to carpet bombing cities or doing SEAD.

In the end it all still comes down to money though. There is only so much the US can still suck out of its population without touching the bottom line of their rich, they lack sufficient industrial capacity to balance out losses, and we have no clear grasp on their stockpiles.

There has to be the illusion that politics is going on on a national level though, to keep the US regime anchored. Things still can’t move too fast to give the illusion of deliberation and tough decisionmaking.

As you said, this whole farce was all planned out, but the US still couldn’t fully join in on day 1. They needed sufficient buildup and propaganda in place first. Something isntreal didn’t need.

The public can be 90% against something in the US and the government can still do it, if you give them a week.

The possible presence of functional AA makes bombing campaigns a lot harder though, as you have to keep SEAD up constantly. It’s very different from countries that don’t have AA whatsoever. Mostly, it is a lot more costly.

The narrative is all that matters in the spectacle that is US politics. As long as both parties go along with their slightly varied warmongering take, and keep the discussion going on their terms, the public opinion on single issues doesn’t matter. They need to seem “reasonable” only in relation to each other.

I think consent manufacturing matters at least somewhat in the sense that it limits the pace of American aggression. The public opinion in the US doesn’t matter in the slightest, but they still have to advance a narrative here.

The US can plan around consent manufacturing, but it can not outright ignore it.

Yeah. The worst thing the US could do to Iran is something like the “No fly zone” bs they pulled in Libya and hunt down the AA, but that wont be nearly as effective without a simultaneous ground invasion.

As long as Iran plays a little hide and seek with their AA, even just shoots down one isntreal plane once in a while, that might just be enough deterrence. We’ve yet to see a war being fought where no ground troops/insurgents are deployed, which makes this hard to predict.

The thing about the Dahiya warcrime doctrine is, that it wont work nearly as smoothly on a country like Iran as it does with militias. Iran has the resources to help families targeted by isntreal back on its feet economically, while said families would just be massively pissed off. It “works” against militias in poor countries because isntreal threatens them with long-term economic devastation while said militias can hardly strike back.

As long as the US can’t manufacture enough consent to carpet bomb cities and industrial sites, pissrael is shit out of luck with their terror strategies. And the US has already shown they are hesitating at least somewhat. If they get involved, it will be against the Iranian military targets like balistic missile launchers first, not cities.

Iran needs more anti-air urgently, but they are at least mostly prepared for this sort of war. isntreal isn’t.

I don’t think so. Iran still has anti-air capabilities, can get resupplied by China, and now the US officially claimed to have destroyed the nuclear capabilities so there will be no ‘nuke’ to justify a ‘preemptive’ nuke. The reason isntreal could do to Gaza what it did was because they had complete control of borders, air food and water. They are neither in artillery range nor conventional bomb range.

The isntreal army itself has shown itself to be worse than shit. They can’t even use their most advanced strategies like driving unaccompanied tanks into cities here, and if their pilots are anything like those ground soldiers, they won’t ever enter east Iran.

Or I’m just high on copium rn. Idk.

Okay, this is unironically a hilarious strategy.

Good luck making a regime change in Iran happen now. The government was just handed one massive pr victory and their conventional military is strong enough that it won’t be overrun by ISISrael militias any time soon.

Looks impressive. Was that the one that hit Haifa without warning?

I wish this was news

We don’t know how well those missiles were aimed yet until satelite pictures come out.