They wont sell their most modern systems but they have a bajillion good enough systems which at scale would make a difference. No matter iran should get its head out of its ass , do a Zelensky and beg and ask for anything and everything, giving up whatever is needed . They will get something
This whole thing goes to show how North Korea is the only non great power sovereign state and only communist states can be trusted to manuever these situations against imperialism.
The DPRK didnt want to be a chinese satelite state or allow significant Chinese influence, had no delusions regarding the west and wanted to chart its own geopolitical course secure from imperialism. So they built the fucking bomb. Even when China in peak post deng pre xi, WTO and West good mode was pissing and crying for them not to , even when they along with Putin’s dumbass joined in the sanctions. Even under the most vicious pressure from the country that had already genocided them. With literally no allies in the entire world. They put their heads down, suffered and persevered but they did it. They didnt have 5% of their population being SK agents with ATGMs hidden in their asses to sabotage them or a political sphere and elite dreaming about sending their kids to harvard and having swiss bank accounts. You guessed it, probably because they were communists.
They would have even done it even if the US carpet bombed them again and hundreds of thosuands were dying and did so without any guarantee that china would actualy help them in that situation despite having a paper somewhere saying they would. They would have turned Seoul into a parking lot with artillery until the last 30.000 people in Pyongyang bunkers and tunnels had a nuke button
And now they are reaping the benefits. Yes most of the world still shuning them and yes they under more pressure and attack than any country other than cuba can imagine. But the geopolitical events and changes created a situation where they can exercise their sovereigty and militarism to upgrade their technologies and energy access from co-benificial ties with russia and China also gives less of a shit to follow a bunch of sanctions they have been following ,and also doesnt want to be left behind in the russia-dprk bromance. And the future looks like more of that.
If they had a fraction of the brainworms iran had they would either be a smoking crater or a chinese dengifying vassal with its teeth taken out which doesnt sound that bad if you dont care about sovereignty between different socialist experiments and nations but whatever
maybe whatever, but not confronting them in Iran certainly doesnt say shit about whether they will or not in the literal theater and situation everyone knows they will be fighting
Everyone thought the J-10s where barely better than Iran’s existing air force for the last 10 years. After the UN weapon ban was over Iran most likely could have gotten into a program and deal without Brandon giving too much shit. Sure that probably means they had to spend less money making 50 different missile types and keeping Assad in power despite the latters best efforts not to be. But yeah everything you said
Iran’s “regime” shouldnt have the same level of reorganization capacity, weaknesses and ability and to achieve its needed deterents and sovereignty compared to a paramilitary semi-state bordering Israel. They can and should swiftly achieve enough objectives regarding mossad purging, reformist purging, nuclear reorganization and weaponization and geopolitical manuvering and rearmament given an enviroment without israeli and US planes flying tours over their heads bombing them every 3 hours. If they cant or arent willing to then they are Assaded
I agree regarding the lack of trade embargo and economic coercion against israel despite having written before how i think it would end up symbolic and not stop the genocide, they should still have done it. Imperialism has been in their borders for half a century in pretty much the same capacity it is now. The only thing that changed is that the balance of hard power now favors China for the first time and will increasingly do so with each passing year. SOft power as well but thats another talk. China knows where imperilism is and is coming from and has made the necessary decisions and has built the hard power to kick its ass when it finaly attacks in desperation. Iran should have done the same with similar urgency and focus. And thats the only thing that matters, cause china is simply too big to be salami sliced, contained, embargoed or stopped by all these ohh so smart economical and geopolitical games. The US could put a comprador regime next to them and that regime will still be forced to continue the same amount of trade and relations with China because their entire economy and state couldnt function otherwise. It is and will become increasingly clear that Imperialism could only hope to actualy achieve its objectives regarding China by an an actual desperation war with not great chances for them and at the same time thats its the only way for imperialism to be kicked away from its borders, where it has been as i said for most of its modern history. Either imperialism will chicken out out given it will probably lose, try and nuke the plannet, try without nuking the plannet and probably losing with a slim chance of success. Whether some reformist becomes leader of Iran and now China only gets the oil it increasingly needs less off without discount and no massive economic cooperation happens with Iran (which the current regime also has been dragging its feet ) doesnt move the needly remotely enough to matter for an actual conflict between China and “the imperialism in its borders”
Given Iran track record and urgency in cultivating close alliances and contigencies with Russia or China why are you sure Iran was in Russia begging for Russian intervention and help en mass. Iran for a decade never made any decisive move to chase any military alliance with Russia because they were a big boy regional power that knew what they were doing and dont need to be under the influence and protection of bigger powers (while also keeping one eye looking west). They werent and arent Ukraine and Zelenskied begging for help and giving up anything they can to invite foreign tripwire forces and presence in their country. Even they they should have been honestly. At best they tried to get like 12 jets from Russia one year into the ukrainian war and 5 years too late investing a fraction of what they threw into the fire to keep dumbass Assad in power
If this community actualy thought that China’s only chance of saving themselves from western domination is becoming an active party in the Iran-Israel-US war (spoiler alert, Iran didnt even ask them to or ever did anything to create that contigency) then maybe we shouldnt get our money up, we dont deserve any Ws associated with us and should instead focus on groupwatches of China clickbait youtube videos and group reads of non communist geopolitical expert subtracks with readership of 500 people. Because apparently thats the level of understanding of China, the world economy and relevant trajectories we are capable of
idk, i feel that Iran’s long term survival and success hinges on either getting a nuke and/or building a conventional modern airforce and air defense systems at scale (by approaching China and Russia with the desperation their position dictates and doing and giving up everything they can to get whatever they can from them, something that they havent remotely done by now) for Israel and the US being unable to do what they have been doing. Also purge a lot of people. Yeah they probably shouldnt accept any loopsided ceasefire right now but at some point they will have to even if it still isnt in their favor and create a relatively stable enviroment to chase the above goals without israeli airplanes and mossad agents strolling around above and on the ground.
Ukraine was doing everything they could to become a western client state and get into every western alliance and militray program they could. It was and is on its knees constantly begging for air defenses and alliences and a billion US troops on its ground. It had a hundreds of soviet Air defense systems already and it was training and intergrating with western systems for a decade. What has Iran actualy done regarding its relations and approachment with China.
There have been a bunch of comments showing how it was dragging its feet in closer military and economic ties with China, due to the reformists looking with one eye west yes but also because they didnt want to be under Russian or Chinese influence and a junior partner to such a relation. Its a big boy country that made its own choices and other powers will act also based on Iranian willingness, actions and what it asks for, what it accepts and has to offer. I made a longer comment here https://hexbear.net/comment/6248893 .
Beyond that and as far as military supplies go, its a question of what systems and how and if they can even be used. China running in to now give modern air defenses and aircrafts is unrealistic for multiple reasons. They would be useless to iranians without extensive months long training and a complicated intergrated ecosystem they operate under. Also with the degree of mossad penetration and Israel depth of opperations and the US joining in the chances these would fall into their hands are pretty high and at this stage of the game its something China wouldnt want. Giving Iran long range rockets and missiles (also launchers cause other wise its useless) isnt impossible but China’s rocket force is one of its greatest focuses given their needs and Taiwan and US placement in the pacific. Giving them in any large scale to Iran would have an impact in their magazine. Also they dont wanna speed up a Taiwan crisis by making sure US goes unhinged in the equipment and military stuff they send to Taiwan, where the US is still afraid to do any big moves. Drones, drone parts, electronics and material to build weapons are already sourced from China by iran in a large degree and we have no idea if they are picking up and it wouldnt be surprising if they are. Normal Ground war millitary stuff Iran doesnt even need as of now and if they do we will see if and what they source from China.
You are correct but there have to be other historical, geographic and even cultural factors taken into account if one is to explian how vassals of similar economic scale and size like Canada, UK or Germany , that on paper should actually have more independent power and policy making vs the US relative to Japan, seem more willing to eat shit and die on America’s directive.
Japan’s proximity to the emerging dominant superpower in China and their much greater economic entaglement. A collective trauma from the plaza accords informing theor strategy now. A historicaly more nationalist and sovereign minded view of themselves and cultural attitude. The actual total war and surrender they “suffered” purely in the hand sof the US and the following occupation. Maybe the fact that they werent the ground zero nearly as much gladio and CIA activity compared to some European countries for most of the post war period. Maybe with the LDP being a one party state and the constitution being US written their political development in recent decades saw less of an industry of US led think tank/ngo politician incubation and training. In general the fact that the US is in Asia but isnt of Asia. The region and japan may have a more historicaly continuous collective memory, cultural and ethnic dynamics, national relations, spheres of influence etc etc spanning hundreds if not thousands of years. Being without the US as the major player and hegemonic power isnt something that alien or disqualifyingly uncomfortable
They delivered some but training and networking takes years and russia is kinda doing a thing in Ukraine. If the whole deal showed more urgency pre ukraine war from both sides maybe there could have made a difference
Japan is probably extremely annoyed with the tarrif and trade negotiations and that informs how much they jump on the US train on other matters at the momment. Maybe they are a vassal state but not a VASSAL state and there is some hope for them. Since at least they are showing some stiff resistance to the US saying “blow up your ailing economy and industry completely for america and trump”. At least way more than what the germans and british are showed and show
A large chunk of the country containing the most important agricultural and energy rich regions being occupied by US compradors is way beyond “airstrikes” and it is what hampered the Syrian state’s ability to adequetly feed and provide modern electricity and heating services to its population year round. Also besides the memes, the Assad “regime” was significantly more corrupt, violent, incompetent and hollowed out compared to the Iranian state. Due to the circumstances and civil war sure, but at the end of the day the way that shaped public opinion and willingeness and capacity to defend it matter
Idk why DJI stock exploding would have much to do with the Israeli wars in the region. The ukraine war by far the place where drones have continuously being proven as the future of walfare, and where most innovation and demand for drone and drone parts comes from regarding military uses. By an order of magnitude. If the rise in stock is for military reasons and demand is way more likely that it follows the trend of proliferation based on the Ukraine war and the subsequent investments and race from all great powers to use those lessons and focus in that production. Compared to that Israeli use and demand for drones is relatively mundane
They are just buttering up Trump. Maybe this is a good sign, meaning that they could have refused concrete commitments regarding israel-iran or US launching opperations with pakistani collaboration or from their space. And so they had to at least go all in in the “trump amazing diplomat deserves nobel prize saved the world” stuff. It doesnt cost anything
They made some deal on extending existing export licences and loosening controls for 6 months but china has put up a lot of bureaucratic hurdles in aquiring licences, making excuses for not sending stuff and demanding proof of use and sensitive information. The deal wasnt anything concrete and binding, just “we’ll look into it and let you get some more”. So that the hole in inventories isnt and wont be replenished and scarcity will continue. Hell china has slowed down in the digging up, buying and refining volumes already and those havent even picked up post “deal”
They played a role in couping Khan but the military stooges put in place still moved the country closer to China than ever before. No matter how far cia ops and bribes go in Pakistan the sheer size and dependency and need for China in almost every way still wins out so Pakistan can and does act against US interests
No country pours military equipment into another country without the prospect of strong influence and alliance and without having a strategic reason to. Not even the ussr did in most cases. China didnt sell NK military shit because NK didnt want to because . NK didnt want to because they have nukes and are extremely warry of increased chinese influence and have been since the mao years. They have a standing mutual defense pact with China already since the korean war. They have nukes. They get military shit from russia because Russia needed the cooperation and approached them. Also while yes China followed a lot of the sanctions for NK they dont that much in the last couple of years. And Iran had enough of a window where there were no weapons related sanctions against them for china to follow and not sell them previous generation shit. And it is proven that in aspects that really matter and that iran really needs like missilie components or oil sales China doesnt give much of a shit for iranian sanctions now