What are we seeing out there folks? From where I sit right now it does not appear that anyone gives a shit.
Flying twice next week so that’s cool. Hope I don’t die.
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Here in Mexico a failure to vote on a budget would just cause the previous years to be used. Best system in the world you got there folks
We need an easy way to manufacture political crisis
It’s genuinely bizarre that doesn’t happen automatically. It’s what almost every country on earth does.
Some countries also automatically liquidate the legislature and executive if a budget fails to pass and trigger new elections
Yes they should be liquefied I agree
:blender-shining:
Don’t breath this!
Liquify the current class and then let’s talk about snap elections upon budget failures
I think most countries in LATAM are like that tbh.
I think that once snap is cut, there will be chaos and riots because millions of people will not have access to food.
Snap feeds 41 millions people or 12% of the population.
If they go a week or two without knowing where food is gonna come from then food Pantry’s will dry up instantly and riots will happen.
I think the Democrats will stop the shutdown before then but shit is so chaotic rn that they can’t do even a week without snap IMHO.
it’s hard to predict how the dems will play this, but my read is that republicans have fucked the dog here and are dangerously close to actually eating this entire shutdown and all its consequences in terms of political capital.
polls-as-propaganda are trying hard to pitch this as a democrat led shutdown, but that’s real hard for people to square with the GOP owning all 3 branches hard. especially with Trump’s perennial victory lap and his insistence since the election that he is the undisputed leader with all the power.
but there’s just enough BS to kinda play like dems are somehow responsible and have some hogs believe it.
in reality, senate GOP could immediately rewrite the rules as they have done before to nuke the filibuster and give their simple majority power to end the shut down. but i think they’re afraid to, because it would reveal they had the power to end the shutdown all along (polls show deep dissatisfaction with shutdowns).
secondly, and more critically, it might not even end the shutdown because their party is so fractious. it took them forever to elect their own house speaker, and that’s some low stakes BS compared to this.
so they’ve basically painted themselves into a corner and their only way out is to own up to it and take a big swing that might blow up in their faces.
so it seems like they are gonna stick with trying to hang it on dems, but as mentioned, that isn’t really working so well despite their messaging discipline.
It is kind of surprising that the dems have finally started to show something resembling backbone here.
For like the millionth time it is indeed on the democrats to not actively fuck up an absolute layup that they could achieve with very little effort. What remains to be seen is how bad they want to fuck it up, and if anyone at any level of the party will move to stop it
From the reporting i’ve seen, Mike Johnson is not even trying to negotiate and neither is Trump. They think this is a win.
Maybe they’re counting on food riots so they can finally send in the National Guard? Sorry to touch the lathe
Yeah, I get that, I’m just wondering why they haven’t beefed it so far when precedent suggests that’s exactly what they’d do.
I hadn’t even thought of that angle, good point. Maybe they’re finally getting too scared to be seen doing nothing? One can hope at least
Someone finally told them that they might get more in donations if they actually made a show of being the opposition
polls-as-propaganda are trying hard to pitch this as a democrat led shutdown, but that’s real hard for people to square with the GOP owning all 3 branches hard. especially with Trump’s perennial victory lap and his insistence since the election that he is the undisputed leader with all the power.
Even if it was the democrats shutdown, what do they have to lose? FUCK THEM UP! Drowning? Drag them down with you. Become such an obstruction that they have to beg and give you half your wants before even sitting at the negotiating table.
They go low, we go, uh, you know, the thing!
SNAP benefits are set to wither Nov 1. depending on the state and if they contribute anything to their EBT/Nutrition Assistance, or if they work some plan to cover these funds, the 10-12% of the US population on “food stamps” won’t be getting their November allotment. thats one week from today.
there have some regional extreme weather events which qualify for federal disaster declarations to access subsidized loans, but that process has been frozen since day 1.
giant institutions don’t shut off like switches. they fall apart over time, especially ones that have been hit with shocks before like the US central government. competent administrators of big programs try to build in a buffer of funding so they aren’t subjected to the brinksmanship of washington’s partisan games over a few days’ symbolic shutdowns.
when they are cut off, though, whatever funds still exist begin to drain away and whatever projects have the most political clout are prioritized to stay open. like ICE and the military.
the first few days people laugh it off and say “I don’t even notice, the government prob doesn’t matter then lol” which only feeds austerity talking points.
if we make it to day 60, i guarantee you are going to experience it in some way, even though many states will step in to try and soften the blow / shoulder the burden. and many states won’t step in to protect their vulnerable populations, so experiences will be very distinct.
i support the federal workers on furlough and think this shutdown has insurrectionary potential, but i am not going to pretend like real people with very limited political power are the ones who will be hurt the most by it.
The second snap benefits go away, there will be riots. Millions will be out of food
if we make it to day 60
do you think this could happen? these have happened so frequently I literally haven’t been paying attention and your comment is the first I’ve read about this shutdown, how did the republicans fuck this up?
do you think this could happen?
i don’t even know anymore. i think the pain point of SNAP benefits would ordinarily break something loose, as would whatever the holy-shit is going on with still unpaid air traffic controllers when that finally shits the bed. that is when some pretty big political machines would step in and force a short term coalition of concessions everyone can take credit for. last time it was air traffic control stuff that pushed everyone to the table.
but, we passed the exit for ordinary a while ago with all the DOGE shit, the inspector general firings, and all the other “the executive isn’t supposed to do this” crap with illegal buyouts, unlawful RIFs/firings and politicized restructuring. also, the unitary executive taking back the power of the purse (at least in terms of cuts) and the destruction of some huge programs i’d never thought i would see get the axe, like USAID. that was a keystone of the imperial machine and the intelligence apparatus, i thought it was a law unto itself with a perfect cover mission. but i guess baby huey managed to actually break some shit.
all that to say, i think the various players and powers that made up the old backroom deals are too dislocated for the typical mechanisms and back-channel conversations to happen. probably a lot of people with their own career aspirations are “over” trump steam rolling everything, so if it were me, i’d be inclined to step back from taking any initiative to let Mr. Deals go ahead and eat this shit sandwich he made.
i think the longest shutdown we’ve had before was like 35 days, which would be like 10 days from now to tie the record. 6 days until SNAP implodes.
Did snap break that other time too? It must have if 35 days
i don’t think so, i believe it was later into the fiscal calendar (like December i think) so some programs had some portion of their operational funds available and could float a little longer.
this particular shutdown came exactly as the federal fiscal year ended (September 30)/began (October 1) again which is an administratively complicated time already, so i think that’s why this one is resulting in more rapid degradation.
like the one-off troop pay thing is crazy, where they had to “find” funds from some pre-existing multi-year project agreement to repurpose. that’s new.
Social Security sent me an email with broken links telling me not to worry.
If fed workers dont start doing acts of sabotage after 30 days of not getting paid then there is not much hope for them
I know they can’t strike but can they not quit either
I don’t get this caveat. How can they not organize and strike when they’re both furloughed and nobody’s enforcing the rule book?
its a mind game. a lot of union collective bargain agreements have no strike clauses. that’s the primary reason employers have to come to the table. almost all the “rules” have all these off ramps and cool off periods to stop workers from stopping their work, because its too damaging to capital formations.
this is one of those consequences of weakening unions is that part of the benefit to capital of a union is they can create these guardrails. if the great body workers all simultaneously stop seeing the union as having meaningful power enough to protect them from egregious abuses, it opens up wildcatting, sabotage, occupation etc.
ehat is distinct about public service in the austerity era is that few committed public servants wants to actually wreck shit or otherwise degrade public services, especially since that’s what the political project causing the shut doen seems to want.
figuring out a tactic for sticking it to the politicians while continuing to provide value to the public is complicated and tends to be specific to the agency, and there usually tend to be laws against it.
Good point on the public employees side. For those not directly tied to public services, I question why they don’t do more if they’re so against the things happening to them. From the outside looking in, they comply and say they do so because they have to, which makes no sense to me. If anyone could direct change it would be them, those directly tied to federal events, instead they follow whatever new change is thrown their way.
There’s a lot of misunderstanding about public sector unions and concerted activity.
Essentially most of the private sector has some protections guaranteed by law to engage in union activity including strikes. For instance, private sector workers can strike and the employer cannot terminate their employment because of the strike (there are other legal ways to fuck over striking employees but they are limited somewhat).
If public sector workers strike they have no protections. This means if they walk off the job their employment can be terminated. Trump could just tell them they’re fired with no claim to unemployment benefits, COBRA, or severance benefits. They can also be banned from federal employment for life.
Federal strikes are also explicitly illegal and employees or the union would almost certainly be fined. They could also face jail time in theory although that’s quite rare.
This doesn’t mean they couldn’t strike, but it is a lot riskier than a private sector strike.
From a longterm perspective though, eventhough there’s been mass layoffs,some industries need bodies to function- we saw with the rehiring, so firing even essential workers could cause a damaging public backlash and or significantly more weak federal government
They should just show up, play Minecraft or Slay the Spire all day, and go home.
How the fuck is this still going on? Are ya’ll seriously going to have a month without any government services available?
Ironically because Obamacare is the bullshit where we have to go through the insurance companies it’s still working for me lol
What if we all just ignore the federal government until it disappears
The government has actually failed it’s pretty remarkable
Getting a shitload of spam calls but I can’t report them since the part of the government that deals with it is shut down
you can report spam calls?? and something gets done about them??
idk how effective it is but at this point I’m willing to try anything, I’m getting like a dozen of these fucking calls a day and they all seem to be from NYC area codes (I am nowhere near NYC)
https://consumercomplaints.fcc.gov/hc/en-us
Due to a partial lapse in federal government funding, starting October 1, 2025, the FCC’s Consumer Complaint Center (CCC) will be unavailable until normal agency operations resume.
You know the spammers have a way to spoof the phone numbers they are calling from? So they might not actually be calling from NY.
Them being from a place where you’re not is the best – you can safely ignore those. I’m in the same boat and would be pissed if they came from local numbers that could actually be relevant.
you can report spam calls??
yep
and something gets done about them??
nope
Checking in from CA and I don’t notice shit
I feel bad for federal workers but like also what a bunch of chumps
Imagine working for free
Imagine trying to fina another job right now
Yeah haha… couldn’t be me… definitely my whole industry isn’t funded by the federal government and so the longer this goes on the less jobs there are…
how about we keep it shutdown but say we didnt?
I’m in a rural college town surrounded by soy and corn farmers. I know farmers have been on edge since they have no one to sell their soy to this year. Most of them seemed to think Trump was gonna give them a bailout, but the shutdown has come right in the peak of harvest season so i assume most of them are freaking tf out right now. But i haven’t heard much word from them since farmers don’t really come into town much during the harvest.
Flew twice last week. Was just as stupid as ever but no worse
Deeply unserious country.
Just an absolute farce
My work is already severely affected by the anti-science bullshit, so it’s been bad for a while. Meanwhile, my wife’s work can’t run SSN for subcontractors, not that anyone is fucking building homes right now.
have not yet noticed in my offline life, fortunately I’m not dependent on direct govt benefits (yet).
