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I’m kinda skeptical of the “running out of interceptors” claim, seems too good to be true. Like in mid 2022 when we were all going “europe is gonna freeze in the winter and stop supporting ukraine”.
It is way cheaper and faster to build the kinds of missiles Iran is launching than it is to build interceptor missiles. The interceptors need to be fast, much more maneuverable, have complicated target acquisition and tracking capabilities, often need to be able to link back up with their stationary launch systems, and more. Things you either don’t need at all or don’t need to be nearly as complicated for a regional ballistic missiles.
Let’s run some basic numbers. We’ll start with the THAAD anti-ICBM launcher Israel uses. It’s US made. Each launch system (those boxy trucks with the rockets on the back) costs $1 BILLION dollars. Each missile costs $12.5 MILLION dollars. Some of that is our gross incestuous grifting in American military contracting but a lot is just how complicated and expensive they are to make. Israel has their Sling of David and some other types of Air Defense systems to counter non-ICBM missiles like Iran has traditionally used. These range from $200k per interceptor to $1 million per interceptor. In the beginning of the war when you saw dozens of those going up to intercept all those initial Iranian launches, that was tens to hundreds of millions of dollars being drained in an instant.
Iran’s most expensive missile they’ve launched so far is around $200k. As expensive as the cheapest, least complicated interceptors and one launch of those pulled over a dozen and a half interceptors and still struck it’s target. Iran has also launched missiles in such way as to bait out as many interceptor missiles as possible, it seems, deliberately to drain the Israelis dry. Additionally, as videos are released, you must notice that interceptor launches are less frequent and even in some cases completely absent.
It’s obvious that they are starting to ration. Iran, on the other hand is not experiencing a shortage of missiles in their possession. What they are experience is an inability to get those missiles to their launch sites from deep storage. Iran, knowing that Israel does have more air superiority than them stores their missiles in deep bunkers and Israel’s strategy was to bomb the access to those sites. It did so, but not as good as they wanted or needed. Fascists are arrogant and they underestimate their enemies and the capabilities of their enemies. This is a historical truth.
Iran is likely undergoing massive efforts to dig out access to those missiles. We’ve seen Chinese cargo planes from mostly Guangzhou on this curious flight path through Western China into Iran where they blip off of radar. Some internet generals are claiming this is weapon shipments. I doubt that. I’d place my money on industrial excavation equipment. This way China can claim they did not supply Iran with any direct military aid. “I’m sure they were using it for relief and industrial purposes.” It’s the kind of thing they’ve done in the past.
So while Israeli AD is suffering major attrition Iranian ballistics have an access issue that is actively being solved. Without major action from Israel or the USA, Iran will solve their issues and regain access to tens of thousands of ballistic missiles of all kinds in days. There is nothing Israel can do to effectively resolve their supply and production issues for interceptors. They simply do not exist to be supplied and manufactured at the rate they need them.
Wars on won on logistics, people. Never forget that.
I agree it maybe a little too good to be true, but this has been our contention for a long while now, that the interceptor missiles for blowing up missiles are far more expensive and difficult to produce than the missiles themselves. We’ve even seen this with Yemen, let alone Iran. Likewise, what would the “misdirection” on the IDF be? We’re seeing their interception rates decline. Iran shoots small waves of missiles and achieves lots of direct hits. What exactly is the point of telling Iran that they’re running out of interceptors? To bait them into shooting more missiles at Israel that are going to hit more targets?
If I’m using cheap missiles to run out your interceptor supply and I think you’re low, I might start using the expensive stuff as a knock out punch but then I waste the expensive stuff. Then the cooldown on my ult is going while you’re getting resupplied from the greater Satan
Yeah that’s what I mean, Iran surely has the ability to determine how many missiles are getting through. They can clearly see that many are. The only “feint” here is that Israel would have to be intentionally letting missiles through so that Iran makes a bigger launch and then they can intercept all of them which is uh confused.
I’m kinda skeptical of the “running out of interceptors” claim, seems too good to be true. Like in mid 2022 when we were all going “europe is gonna freeze in the winter and stop supporting ukraine”.
Could also be misdirection from the idf
I’m not. Effort reply incoming:
It is way cheaper and faster to build the kinds of missiles Iran is launching than it is to build interceptor missiles. The interceptors need to be fast, much more maneuverable, have complicated target acquisition and tracking capabilities, often need to be able to link back up with their stationary launch systems, and more. Things you either don’t need at all or don’t need to be nearly as complicated for a regional ballistic missiles.
Let’s run some basic numbers. We’ll start with the THAAD anti-ICBM launcher Israel uses. It’s US made. Each launch system (those boxy trucks with the rockets on the back) costs $1 BILLION dollars. Each missile costs $12.5 MILLION dollars. Some of that is our gross incestuous grifting in American military contracting but a lot is just how complicated and expensive they are to make. Israel has their Sling of David and some other types of Air Defense systems to counter non-ICBM missiles like Iran has traditionally used. These range from $200k per interceptor to $1 million per interceptor. In the beginning of the war when you saw dozens of those going up to intercept all those initial Iranian launches, that was tens to hundreds of millions of dollars being drained in an instant.
Iran’s most expensive missile they’ve launched so far is around $200k. As expensive as the cheapest, least complicated interceptors and one launch of those pulled over a dozen and a half interceptors and still struck it’s target. Iran has also launched missiles in such way as to bait out as many interceptor missiles as possible, it seems, deliberately to drain the Israelis dry. Additionally, as videos are released, you must notice that interceptor launches are less frequent and even in some cases completely absent.
It’s obvious that they are starting to ration. Iran, on the other hand is not experiencing a shortage of missiles in their possession. What they are experience is an inability to get those missiles to their launch sites from deep storage. Iran, knowing that Israel does have more air superiority than them stores their missiles in deep bunkers and Israel’s strategy was to bomb the access to those sites. It did so, but not as good as they wanted or needed. Fascists are arrogant and they underestimate their enemies and the capabilities of their enemies. This is a historical truth.
Iran is likely undergoing massive efforts to dig out access to those missiles. We’ve seen Chinese cargo planes from mostly Guangzhou on this curious flight path through Western China into Iran where they blip off of radar. Some internet generals are claiming this is weapon shipments. I doubt that. I’d place my money on industrial excavation equipment. This way China can claim they did not supply Iran with any direct military aid. “I’m sure they were using it for relief and industrial purposes.” It’s the kind of thing they’ve done in the past.
So while Israeli AD is suffering major attrition Iranian ballistics have an access issue that is actively being solved. Without major action from Israel or the USA, Iran will solve their issues and regain access to tens of thousands of ballistic missiles of all kinds in days. There is nothing Israel can do to effectively resolve their supply and production issues for interceptors. They simply do not exist to be supplied and manufactured at the rate they need them.
Wars on won on logistics, people. Never forget that.
Just a ploy to start cooking up support for more resources to be sent their way, yeah?
I agree it maybe a little too good to be true, but this has been our contention for a long while now, that the interceptor missiles for blowing up missiles are far more expensive and difficult to produce than the missiles themselves. We’ve even seen this with Yemen, let alone Iran. Likewise, what would the “misdirection” on the IDF be? We’re seeing their interception rates decline. Iran shoots small waves of missiles and achieves lots of direct hits. What exactly is the point of telling Iran that they’re running out of interceptors? To bait them into shooting more missiles at Israel that are going to hit more targets?
If I’m using cheap missiles to run out your interceptor supply and I think you’re low, I might start using the expensive stuff as a knock out punch but then I waste the expensive stuff. Then the cooldown on my ult is going while you’re getting resupplied from the greater Satan
Source: hallucinating like an LLM
Yes, except iran wouldn’t be hitting more targets since the idf would have more interceptors than they’d be letting the iranians believe.
Though like you said iran has been able to make it past plenty of interceptors anyway
Yeah that’s what I mean, Iran surely has the ability to determine how many missiles are getting through. They can clearly see that many are. The only “feint” here is that Israel would have to be intentionally letting missiles through so that Iran makes a bigger launch and then they can intercept all of them which is uh confused.
Their interception rate is very low now