• BynarsAreOk [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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    10 hours ago

    The thing is and this might be yet again stating the obvious, how is this a China win?

    If “Israel running out of [insert key resource/weapon”] is such a great 5d play then why didn’t China already embargo Israel over the last 18 months of genocide, couldn’t they see that continuing to support Israel would lead to them continuing their aggression? The 5d chess players couldn’t even play the 1st move of checkers, perhaps if Israel were under such an embargo there wouldn’t even be a war with Iran right now. In fact, hey Xi if you’re still listening, the best time to stop trading and sustaining Israel’s economy was 18 months ago, the second best time is today, just saying.

    But the elephant in the room is that this wasn’t a 5d move or a principled act, China only reacted after being pressured by Trump’s tariffs. Yet they welcomed Biden’s admin in 2024 with open arms even as the Biden team pressured them to change their economy.

    The elephant in the room is if Trump wasn’t an idiot pivoting from big plot to big plot to get his desperate huge W, if he had simply started the Iran war before pressuring China with the tariffs there would certainly be no rare earth ban right now.

    That the CPC was pressured against the wall and forced to use the rare earth ban for leverage now allegedly causes inconvenience to Israel is just a happy coincidence. We need quite a bit more of those for meaningful change and it is pitiful to portray this as some 5d chess.

    You are literaly one of the most responsible(and South Africa’s coal etc) for Israel to remain stable enough to function as a society right now, zero self-awareness from the grifters right now, can’t even read the damn room.

  • Chapo_is_Red [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    10 hours ago

    I’m sure Iran also has a bottleneck, but on ballistic missiles rather than interceptors. So the question is which can resupply faster whether thru domestic manufacturing or imports

  • grandepequeno [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    14 hours ago

    I’m kinda skeptical of the “running out of interceptors” claim, seems too good to be true. Like in mid 2022 when we were all going “europe is gonna freeze in the winter and stop supporting ukraine”.

    Could also be misdirection from the idf

    • LaughingLion [any, any]@hexbear.net
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      11 hours ago

      I’m not. Effort reply incoming:

      It is way cheaper and faster to build the kinds of missiles Iran is launching than it is to build interceptor missiles. The interceptors need to be fast, much more maneuverable, have complicated target acquisition and tracking capabilities, often need to be able to link back up with their stationary launch systems, and more. Things you either don’t need at all or don’t need to be nearly as complicated for a regional ballistic missiles.

      Let’s run some basic numbers. We’ll start with the THAAD anti-ICBM launcher Israel uses. It’s US made. Each launch system (those boxy trucks with the rockets on the back) costs $1 BILLION dollars. Each missile costs $12.5 MILLION dollars. Some of that is our gross incestuous grifting in American military contracting but a lot is just how complicated and expensive they are to make. Israel has their Sling of David and some other types of Air Defense systems to counter non-ICBM missiles like Iran has traditionally used. These range from $200k per interceptor to $1 million per interceptor. In the beginning of the war when you saw dozens of those going up to intercept all those initial Iranian launches, that was tens to hundreds of millions of dollars being drained in an instant.

      Iran’s most expensive missile they’ve launched so far is around $200k. As expensive as the cheapest, least complicated interceptors and one launch of those pulled over a dozen and a half interceptors and still struck it’s target. Iran has also launched missiles in such way as to bait out as many interceptor missiles as possible, it seems, deliberately to drain the Israelis dry. Additionally, as videos are released, you must notice that interceptor launches are less frequent and even in some cases completely absent.

      It’s obvious that they are starting to ration. Iran, on the other hand is not experiencing a shortage of missiles in their possession. What they are experience is an inability to get those missiles to their launch sites from deep storage. Iran, knowing that Israel does have more air superiority than them stores their missiles in deep bunkers and Israel’s strategy was to bomb the access to those sites. It did so, but not as good as they wanted or needed. Fascists are arrogant and they underestimate their enemies and the capabilities of their enemies. This is a historical truth.

      Iran is likely undergoing massive efforts to dig out access to those missiles. We’ve seen Chinese cargo planes from mostly Guangzhou on this curious flight path through Western China into Iran where they blip off of radar. Some internet generals are claiming this is weapon shipments. I doubt that. I’d place my money on industrial excavation equipment. This way China can claim they did not supply Iran with any direct military aid. “I’m sure they were using it for relief and industrial purposes.” It’s the kind of thing they’ve done in the past.

      So while Israeli AD is suffering major attrition Iranian ballistics have an access issue that is actively being solved. Without major action from Israel or the USA, Iran will solve their issues and regain access to tens of thousands of ballistic missiles of all kinds in days. There is nothing Israel can do to effectively resolve their supply and production issues for interceptors. They simply do not exist to be supplied and manufactured at the rate they need them.

      Wars on won on logistics, people. Never forget that.

    • thethirdgracchi [he/him, they/them]@hexbear.net
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      14 hours ago

      I agree it maybe a little too good to be true, but this has been our contention for a long while now, that the interceptor missiles for blowing up missiles are far more expensive and difficult to produce than the missiles themselves. We’ve even seen this with Yemen, let alone Iran. Likewise, what would the “misdirection” on the IDF be? We’re seeing their interception rates decline. Iran shoots small waves of missiles and achieves lots of direct hits. What exactly is the point of telling Iran that they’re running out of interceptors? To bait them into shooting more missiles at Israel that are going to hit more targets?

      • WhatDoYouMeanPodcast [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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        12 hours ago

        If I’m using cheap missiles to run out your interceptor supply and I think you’re low, I might start using the expensive stuff as a knock out punch but then I waste the expensive stuff. Then the cooldown on my ult is going while you’re getting resupplied from the greater Satan

        Source: hallucinating like an LLM

      • grandepequeno [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        13 hours ago

        what would the “misdirection” on the IDF be? To bait them into shooting more missiles at Israel that are going to hit more targets?

        Yes, except iran wouldn’t be hitting more targets since the idf would have more interceptors than they’d be letting the iranians believe.

        Though like you said iran has been able to make it past plenty of interceptors anyway

        • thethirdgracchi [he/him, they/them]@hexbear.net
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          13 hours ago

          Yeah that’s what I mean, Iran surely has the ability to determine how many missiles are getting through. They can clearly see that many are. The only “feint” here is that Israel would have to be intentionally letting missiles through so that Iran makes a bigger launch and then they can intercept all of them which is uh confused.

  • abc [he/him, comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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    13 hours ago

    why would you post a youtube video in the News comm

    Key insights and strategies for global business owners and managers, from inside the world’s factory and supply chains.

    We live and work in Mainland China, and travel extensively throughout the country to find the highest-quality products at competitive prices, for markets abroad.

    Inside China Business why are you posting about Israel’s (supposed lack of) interceptor missiles get back to your key insights and strategies for global business owners & managers.

    • LaughingLion [any, any]@hexbear.net
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      11 hours ago

      Well essentially its about China’s control over the minerals markets in key areas which is exactly what this dude reports on. Munitions and military equipment is big business.

  • wombat [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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    16 hours ago

    the maoist uprising against the landlords was the largest and most comprehensive proletarian revolution in history, and led to almost totally-equal redistribution of land among the peasantry

      • Blakey [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        14 hours ago

        “In Zhangzhuangcun, in the more thoroughly reformed north of the country, most “landlords” and “rich peasants” had lost all their land and often their lives or had fled. All formerly landless workers had received land, which eliminated this category altogether. As a result, “middling peasants,” who now accounted for 90 percent of the village population, owned 90.8 percent of the land, as close to perfect equality as one could possibly hope for.”

        Quote from historian Walter Scheidel, from the Wikipedia page on the Land Reform Movement mao-wave

      • Carl [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        15 hours ago

        It’s a paraphrased quote from a historian that used to be on the Wikipedia page for the Land Reform Movement. I remember when it first got popular it was two or three paragraphs, but its been whittled down by time. I dunno exactly when NATOpedia got rid of it but I haven’t been able to find the original the past couple of times I’ve looked.

    • Grapho@lemmy.ml
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      11 hours ago

      You can look at any of his back catalogue, he’s usually spot on and he always presents his sources in the video.

    • thethirdgracchi [he/him, they/them]@hexbear.net
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      12 hours ago

      Well this source might be garbage but the analysis is true. We know Israel is running out of interceptors, attested to even in mainstream Western media (both WSJ and NYTimes). We know the production of those interceptors, just like most sensitive electronics, requires many Rare Earth Metals that China has an effective monopoly over. And we know that China currently has an export ban on these REMs because of Trump’s tariffs. This source is just connecting the dots.